Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Auckland Volcanic Field Scenario

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Deligne, N.I.; Blake, D.M.; Davies, A.J.; Grace, E.S.; Hayes, J.; Potter, S.H.; Stewart, C.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.M. 2015 Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Auckland Volcanic Field Scenario. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. ERI research report 2015/03 x, 151 p.; doi: 10.21420/G2GK56

Abstract: The Economics of Resilient Infrastructure (ERI) research programme is a four year project funded by the New Zealand Government. The final output of the programme is a software tool, MERIT (Modelling the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool) which will quantify the economic consequences of infrastructure failure and explore various post disaster recovery strategies. This report documents one of two multi-sector outage scenarios developed for the MERIT tool, a volcanic eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). The scenario is based on the all-of-nation 2008 Civil Defence Exercise Ruaumoko, which concerned the period of unrest leading to an AVF eruption. The Determining Volcanic Risk for Auckland (DEVORA) research programme recently produced a month long eruption scenario following Exercise Ruaumoko, which we have adapted here. In this report we describe the geophysical scenario concerning the ‘Mt Ruaumoko eruption’, describe evacuation maps and a clean-up model, and then describe impacts and restoration times for the following infrastructure sectors: power, fuel, roads, rail, aviation, port, water supply, wastewater, stormwater, and telecommunications. For each sector we provide a ‘level of service’ time series map or a table, which detail how Auckland residents and businesses experience the service provided by each sector during the course of the eruption and its aftermath. We do not consider interdependencies between the sectors, as the MERIT tool will eventually provide various policy levers which may affect sector interdependencies. In addition to providing an input for the MERIT tool, this report is a valuable contribution towards understanding the likely impacts of an AVF eruption. (auth)