Multiple infrastructure failures and restoration estimates from an Alpine Fault earthquake : capturing modelling information for MERIT

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    Robinson, T.R.; Buxton, R.; Wilson, T.M.; Cousins, W.J.; Christophersen, A. 2015 Multiple infrastructure failures and restoration estimates from an Alpine Fault earthquake : capturing modelling information for MERIT. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. ERI research report 2015/04 80 p.; doi: 10.21420/G2BS38

    Abstract: The Economics of Resilient Infrastructure (ERI) research program aims to develop techniques and tools that allow the modelling and analysis of the economic consequences of infrastructure outages. The development of a Modelling the Economic Resilience of Infrastructure Tool (MERIT) has been a cornerstone deliverable for the ERI project. The underpinning concept of MERIT is that of a System Dynamic economic model with some aspects of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE). MERIT is, in fact, three different economic tools that are best suited to small, medium and large scale infrastructure outages. To aid in the MERIT development process four outage scenarios of varying levels of severity and complexity have been produced. Previous work has concentrated on scenarios based around a single impacted infrastructure type. These scenarios and the MERIT modelling undertaken on them provided some insight into the possible regional and national economic implications of a water supply outage or an electricity outage in Auckland. This work addresses an Alpine Fault Earthquake scenario. This is a larger and more complex scenario than those previously considered in the ERI program and which impacts multiple infrastructure types over a large area of the South Island and, especially when aftershocks are considered, has a large temporal footprint. The largest impacts are to the transportation networks (roads and rail) which could isolate many small communities on the West Coast. (auth)

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