Energy demand estimation for cooling and heating in New Zealand

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SR_2009-75-pdf
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Rossouw, P.; Lind, L. 2010 Energy demand estimation for cooling and heating in New Zealand. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/75 31 p.

Abstract: Appropriate utilisation of low enthalpy resources will support the government aims of improving security of energy supply, while also producing economic value and social benefit. This study characterises the historical and projected end-use energy demand of 16 regions in New Zealand using the EnergyScape database model. The focus was on the identification of end-uses and regions where low enthalpy geothermal energy might best contribute to energy solutions with application temperatures below 150 ºC. New Zealand’s energy demand in 2007, for heating and cooling was 84.7 PJ/year in the 0-100 ºC temperature range and 122.0 PJ/year in the 0-150 ºC temperature range, being 20% and 29% respectively of the total energy demand of 426.7 PJ/year. Geothermal direct heat use in 2009 was estimated to be 9.7 PJ/year. The greatest use in New Zealand is for industrial process heat followed by use in bathing pools. The largest users of energy for heating and cooling (0-100 ºC), historically and in the future, are the residential and commercial sectors. The largest user of energy for heating and cooling (0-150 ºC), historically and in the future, is the manufacturing sector. Future total energy demand is predicted to increase by 19% by 2025 to 507.8 PJ/year being well correlated with population and concentrated in the Auckland Region, followed by Waikato, Canterbury and Wellington. Focusing on predicted sector growth in energy demand between 2007 and 2025 in the 0-150 ºC temperature range identifies the areas where the best penetration and increased uptake of direct geothermal energy use could occur. The greatest anticipated growth of 13.9 PJ per year occurs in the manufacturing sector over the 0 to 150 ºC temperature range. 9.8 PJ per year of this occurs in the 100 to 150 ºC temperature range. The commercial sector has projected sector growth of 10.3 PJ per year over the 0 to 150 ºC temperature range. The majority of this, being 9.6 PJ per year, is anticipated in the 0 to 100 ºC temperature range. The residential sector has projected growth of 5.5 PJ per year over the 0 to 150 ºC temperature range. The majority of this, being 5.3 PJ per year, is anticipated in the 0 to 100 ºC temperature range. (auth/DG)