Earthquake damage and casualties due to large earthquakes impacting Wellington Region

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Cousins, W.J. 2013 Earthquake damage and casualties due to large earthquakes impacting Wellington Region. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2013/41 12 p.

Abstract: Damage and casualties have been estimated for sevel large earthquake scenarios in the Wellington Region. Four of the earthquakes, involving rupture of the Wellington, Wairarapa and Ohariu Faults, and the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, are considered to be the most costly and deadly earthquakes likely impact the Wellington Region. In the modelling they generated shaking losses ranging from $9 billion to $16 billion, death numbers ranging from 400 to 1600 for a daytime event, 140 to 470 for night-time, and injury numbers from 4000 to 9000 daytime, 3000 to 7000 night-time. The remaining three scenarios involved the Wairau and BooBoo Faults, and the segment of the Wellington Fault that runs through the Tararua Range starting about 40 km north of Wellington. They resulted in much lower losses and casualties, ranging from $1 billion to $1.6 billion for losses, 10 to 60 daytime deaths, 1 to 14 night-time deaths, 300 to 400 daytime injuries, and 100 to 300 night-time injuries. Additional losses and casualties due to subsequent tsunami were also estimated for four of the scenarios. The necessary tsunami data were not available for the Ohariu and Wairau Fault cases, and the Tararua segment of the Wellington Fault was not considered for tsunami because it is entirely on-land. The tsunami made relatively modest contributions to the overall losses, but large contributions to the numbers of deaths. For the scenario involving rupture of Hikurangi Subduction Zone, the numbers of tsunami deaths greatly exceeded those caused by shaking damage (3200 vs. 370 for a daytime event, and 2500 vs. 140 for a night-time event). (auth)