Evacuation numbers and current evacuation planning in Wellington Region for a tsunami generated by a large Hikurangi subduction zone earthquake

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Wright, K.C.; Cousins, W.J. 2014 Evacuation numbers and current evacuation planning in Wellington Region for a tsunami generated by a large Hikurangi subduction zone earthquake. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2014/44 45 p.

Abstract: Many thousands of people in the Wellington Region could be displaced by large, local source tsunamigenic earthquakes. Modelling of a great subduction zone event earthquake in the Hikurangi Margin, near the Wellington Region, has been undertaken to determine evacuation rates due to building damage and self-evacuation for tsunami. The numbers of people displaced and duration of displacement mean that considerable planning is required by communities and authorities to minimise the potential consequences of a large, local, tsunamigenic earthquake. This report describes the consequence modelling methodology and results from a great magnitude 8.9 scenario earthquake on the Hikurangi Subduction zone in Cook Strait and along the eastern North Island. Evacuation numbers in the Wellington Region are derived by considering damage to structures from earthquake and tsunami hazards, as well as self-evacuation in tsunami zones, following the natural warning (i.e., strong or long ground shaking) provided by the earthquake. Evacuation numbers are provided for the Wellington Region, for each district and by suburb, to best facilitate response planning. The Wellington Region Emergency Management Office (WREMO) is currently updating planning arrangements for managing their response to local and distance source tsunami. This planning involves integrating and updating where necessary, the legacy plans of the various emergency management agencies in the Wellington Region that have amalgamated to form WREMO. Evacuee modelling and tsunami social science research outputs (such as is presented in this report) are assisting WREMO with their planning for key activities such as determining sheltering needs, promoting self-evacuation for local source tsunami, coordinating public alerting systems, and developing community-based evacuation maps. (auth)