Methodology for the development of a probability translation table for GeoNet

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Doyle, E.E.H.; Potter, S.H. 2016 Methodology for the development of a probability translation table for GeoNet. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2015/67 18 p.

Abstract: Based on leading best practice by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the World Meteorological Organization, the GeoNet monitoring programme at GNS Science is adopting a probability translation table. The table is used to effectively communicate likelihoods of hazardous events (such as volcanic eruptions, aftershocks, landslides, and tsunami) with stakeholders and the public, allowing for consistency across communications by GNS Science. The table provides a link between numerical probabilities and verbal descriptors of those probabilities (such as ‘very likely’), as they are perceived by the general population. This document outlines the motivation and background behind probability translation tables, and the process by which this table was developed. It also responds to some frequently asked questions about these tables, and describes that the GeoNet table was split into two for the public website based on the degree of uncertainty. (auth)