Arrival time estimates for local source tsunami for Wellington suburbs

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Wang, X.; Mueller, C.; Power, W.L.; Lukovic, B. 2017 Arrival time estimates for local source tsunami for Wellington suburbs. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2016/03. 58 p.; doi: 10.21420/G25C73

Abstract: Arrival times of tsunami from local active fault sources have been estimated for coastal suburbs of Wellington harbour region, including the start time of noticeable disturbance, the start and arrival times of the first peak, and the start and arrival times of the biggest peak. The local source scenarios that have been modelled include 20 scenarios on the Hikurangi subduction interface, 9 scenarios on the Wellington Fault, 9 scenarios on the Wairarapa Fault and 9 scenarios on the Wharekauhau Fault. The maximum potential magnitude on each fault, obtained from past studies, has been used to construct source scenarios with various slip distributions in order to account for the effect of slip heterogeneity on tsunami arrivals. This leads to a range of possible tsunami arrivals for a suburb. The earliest, 25th, 50th, 75th percentiles and the latest in the arrival time range are presented for each suburb for tsunamis from each source. Due to different positioning of the four local faults relative to Wellington suburbs, no consistent patterns of tsunami arrival time distributions have been identified for tsunamis from each of these local sources. When considering all the modelled scenarios of the four fault sources together, the modelling results show that the first peak of a tsunami would arrive at Wellington suburbs as early as in 3.5~11.4 minutes in a local earthquake event. (auth)