Wang, X.; Lukovic, B.; Mueller, C.; Heron, D.W.; Power, W.L. 2021 Tsunami travel time estimates for local sources for Porirua and Kapiti Coast suburbs. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2020/06. 39 p.; doi: 10.21420/RAVV-9Q93
Abstract:
In local fault source tsunami events, the effectiveness of self-evacuation planning is constrained by two pieces of timing information: the tsunami travel (arrival) time estimate and evacuation travel time estimate. This study estimates travel times of tsunami from local active fault sources to coastal suburbs of Porirua and Kāpiti Coast in the Greater Wellington region of New Zealand. The estimates include the arrivals of 1.0 m tsunami elevation above local ambient sea condition, i.e. the threshold for Marine and Land Threat in the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management’s (MCDEM; now the National Emergency Management Agency) tsunami threat-level definitions, as well as arrivals of the biggest tsunami peaks. The local-source scenarios that have been modelled include 50 slip distribution scenarios on the southern Hikurangi Subduction Interface; eight slip distribution scenarios on the Fisherman Fault; and one uniform slip scenario for each of Fisherman Fault, Manaota Fault, Mascarin Fault, Ohariu Fault, Okupe Fault, Onepoto Fault, Rangitikei Fault offshore section (Rangioffsh Fault) and Wairau Fault. The maximum potential magnitude on each fault, obtained from the National Seismic Hazard Model, has been used to construct fault source scenarios. For the fault sources with non-uniform slip modelling, tsunami travel time estimates are presented at the earliest; 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles; and the latest arrivals for each coastal suburb (auth)
