Dumaru P, Martin AP, Talwar S, Magill CR, Gerstenberger MC. 2022. A wellbeing impact assessment framework for the National Seismic Hazard Model. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS Science. 32 p. (GNS Science report; 2022/36). doi:10.21420/YD9Y-TB28.
Abstract
This report proposes an approach for assessing the impact (a return on investment) of resilience investments on wellbeing and a framework for assessing the impacts of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) research programme on wellbeing in New Zealand. The NSHM calculates the likelihood and strength of earthquake shaking across New Zealand to inform the design and standards for infrastructure, land-use planning and risk insurance, which affect wellbeing related to housing, safety and basic services, among others. A wellbeing impact assessment (WIA) approach is developed in this study to frame explanations of causalities, guide the selection of established indicators and inform the development of new ones. We propose several published indicators, primarily housing- and infrastructure-related, that could be used to measure the impact of the NSHM on New Zealand wellbeing. A step process comprising a Theory of Change, a results-chain framework and a monitoring and evaluation plan is then proposed to conduct and report on the WIA of the NSHM. This report did not go as far as assigning values to the NSHM-relevant (published) indicators, but it is our recommendation that the approach is sufficiently robust to warrant this next step, which may also include the development of new NSHM-specific indicators. We note that the data used to quantify indicators (both existing and new) may not be currently collected or may have sporadic coverage. The approach proposed here is transferable to assessing the impact of other resilience investments on New Zealand wellbeing. This work was funded by the GNS Science Capability Development Fund. Thank you to Joe Manning and Gary Wilson for their assistance on project proposal and stakeholder engagement ideas. (The authors)
