Bretherton, E.V.; Charlton, D.H. 2024 Planning and early warning systems for cascading natural hazard risk. GNS Science report 2024/28. 22 p.; doi: 10.21420/06CJ-W078
Abstract
Aotearoa New Zealand is at risk from cascading hazards triggered by a catastrophic natural hazard event. Many pieces of legislation and guidance form the governance framework, with a variety of operational systems running concurrently. Currently, most governance and operational responses do not consider cascading hazard risk, apart from the AF8 SAFER (South Island Te Waipounamu Alpine Fault Earthquake Response) framework. Recommencing the H9 programme, for regions likely impacted by a Hikurangi Subduction Zone margin, is recommended. Using land-use planning for maximum credible scenarios would substantially impact day-to-day life and could outweigh the potential loss of life and damage to the environment, communities and infrastructure, depending on the probability of that event occurring. Further research into acceptable levels of risk when balanced against potential loss and potential mitigation costs and impact is recommended to understand appropriate risk-management responses in an Aotearoa New Zealand context. (auths)
