Das, M.; Doyle, E.E.H.; Potter, S.H.; Charlton, D.C.; Becker, J.S.; Vinnell, L.; Leonard, G.S.; Johnston, D.M. 2025 Guidelines for communicating likelihood and probability of natural hazards. Lower Hutt, NZ: Earth Sciences New Zealand. GNS Science report 2025/29. 39 p.; doi: 10.21420/5B4D-Y883
Abstract
Probabilistic information about natural hazards and their uncertainties is now widely acknowledged as crucial for informed decision-making. However, effectively communicating probability information presents challenges related to comprehension, potential misinterpretation and unintentional influence on the audience. This document outlines recommended strategies for effectively conveying probability information, especially in the context of natural hazards such as earthquakes and volcanoes. The study aims to summarise key insights from existing research and provide recommendations for communicating probability and likelihood information of natural hazards (auths)
