Nairn, I.A.; Scott, B.J. 1995 Scientific management of the 1994 Rabaul eruption : lessons for New Zealand . Lower Hutt: Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences science report 95/26 i, 27 p.
Abstract: The 1994 eruptions of Tavurvur and Vulcan which began on 19 September in Rabaul Caldera had been anticipated since the 1983-85 Rabaul seismic-deformation crisis, but precursory activity leading up to the eruption developed much faster than had been expected. Intense seismic activity began only 27 hours before the eruption commenced and remarkable uplift of the ground surface occurred less than 12 hours before the eruption. Despite the short precursory period, more than 30000 people were evacuated during the 12 hours prior to the eruption. This success was a result of (1) a volcano-respecting local population, (2) warnings from the Rabaul Volcano Observatory, and (3) civil defence preparations. Five deaths resulted from the eruption, in contrast to the more than 500 deaths during a very similar eruption of Tavurvur and Vulcan in 1937. This report examines the eruption history of the Rabaul caldera and assesses the performance of the volcano alert system in the period preceding the 1994 eruption. The response of civil defence and scientific agencies to the eruption is examined. Many lessons for New Zealand are provided and the New Zealand volcano alert system should be reviewed in light of this experience. The robustness of our observatories, monitoring networks and telemetry links needs to be strengthened if they are to be useful during a major eruption, as do links to the civil defence authorities. Strategies should be developed to overcome weaknesses identified , for example the development of a real-time telemetred geodetic monitoring capability is required to support seismic interpretations in the assessment of any impending activity at volcanoes in New Zealand. (auth/ARC)
