Stoetzer, O.; Tan, M.L.; Power, W.L.; Hudson-Doyle, E.E.; McCombe, G.; Johnston, D.M. 2024 Tsunami evacuation modelling: Expert Elicitation Workshops report. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2024/33. 21 p.; doi: 10.21420/GZMM-J986
Abstract
A significant portion of Aotearoa New Zealand’s population is vulnerable to tsunami. To improve evacuation modelling and planning, this study explores the complexities of decision-making for tsunami evacuation. As an exploratory study, four expert elicitation workshops were held to brainstorm key factors influencing evacuation behaviour. Insights from the workshop reveal the complexity of decision-making, with multiple factors overlapping and potentially influencing each other. The factors identified can be broadly grouped into four categories. These include: (1) Individual factors: personal experiences, knowledge, health, mobility and other factors can shape evacuation choices. (2) Social context and influence: social norms, family dynamics and other influences can significantly impact evacuation decisions. (3) Information factors: Clarity, timeliness and comprehensiveness of information is crucial for effective evacuation. (4) External and location-based factors such as time of day, weather, familiarity with surroundings and damage to infrastructure can also influence evacuation strategies. These findings highlight the potential to integrate these factors to improve agent-based modelling to reflect actual decision-making processes. In turn, the models can improve evacuation planning and public education. The multi-faceted factors can be progressively integrated into tsunami evacuation modelling as research progresses. Models that integrate the decision-making factors identified in this study can be a valuable tool for enhancing tsunami planning for coastal communities in Aotearoa New Zealand (auths)
