Fry, B.; Power, W.L.; Hughes, L.; Lane, E.; Syed, Y.I.; Horspool, N.A.; Howell, A.; O'Kane, A.; Liao,Y-W.M.; Nicol, A.; Williams, C.A. 2025 National Tsunami Model: Stage 1 final report. Lower Hutt, NZ: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2025/09. 32 p.; doi: 10.21420/FE6N-0E17
Abstract
In this report, we present the outcomes of Stage 1 of the National Tsunami Model. Central to this work is the use of physics-based source catalogues and hydrodynamic modelling of tsunami impacts. Drawing upon this work, and in consultation with the wider Aotearoa New Zealand research community, we have developed a strategy for a nationally consistent model of tsunami hazard and risk. We apply this approach to Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington Region. In this framework, we use physics-informed models of the earthquake cycle to generate a catalogue of 30,000 years of synthetic earthquakes. We analyse this catalogue and create hydrodynamic models of inundation for the events that create significant loss. Loss is then calculated with the RiskScapeTM platform. We conclude by presenting a new model of tsunami hazard and risk that includes the critically important effects of complex, multi-fault rupture. (auths)
