Sahoo, T.R.; Burnell, J.G.; Seward, A.M.; Cook, M.J. 2026 Energy-system modelling in New Zealand. Lower Hutt, NZ: Earth Sciences New Zealand. GNS Science report 2026/02. 40 p.; doi: 10.21420/A8WY-VN25
Abstract
New Zealand’s transition toward a low emissions, climate resilient energy future requires robust analytical tools capable of capturing the complexity of its highly renewable, geographically distributed and hydro dependent electricity system. Energy-system models play a critical role in this transition by enabling policy-makers, researchers and industry to explore future energy pathways, assess trade offs and evaluate the impacts of policy, technology and market developments. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the major energy-system models currently used in New Zealand, including models developed by the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE), the Energy Efficiency & Conservation Authority, the BusinessNZ Energy Council, Transpower, the Climate Change Commission, academia and industry. Drawing on publicly available information, the report outlinesthe structure, methodologies, applications, strengths and limitations of these models, with particular focus on the TIMES NZ 2.0 model and MBIE’s interconnected modelling suite (SADEM, GEM, VFM, PRM and others). The report also highlights the unique characteristics of New Zealand’s energy system, such as its high renewable electricity share, dry year risk, fossil fuel dependent transport sector and market based electricity system. These characteristics shape modelling needs and influence scenario outcomes. While energy-system models provide valuable insights for long term planning, these remain constrained by uncertainties in future technologies, predictions on climate change, behavioural responses and policy implementation. The report concludes by identifying key gaps in New Zealand’s modelling landscape, including the absence of a unified national modelling framework and a comprehensive long term energy strategy, and outlines opportunities for future development to support coherent, evidence based energy planning (auths)
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