Uma, S.R.; Syed, Y.I.; Moratalla, J.M. 2024 Estimation of electricity supply restoration time considering road interdependencies under cascading hazard risk approach. Lower Hutt, N.Z.: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2024/22. 16 p.; doi: 10.21420/ZA0G-KV69
Abstract
The electricity infrastructure network functions as a system with several components interconnected and distributed over a region. When subjected to earthquake and its related cascading hazards, the vulnerable components undergo systemic failure, resulting in outage of services. Restoration of power supply depends on the availability of road access to the damaged sites and is hence interdependent on the road network restoration. In this report, we present a detailed method to estimate restoration time with interdependencies that can be integrated with a broader cascading hazard risk probabilistic framework, developed in an earlier study by the authors. The probabilistic cascading hazard risk framework begins with modelling of primary (e.g. earthquake) and cascading hazards to generate likely damage response of distributed infrastructure networks by accounting for uncertainties via Monte Carlo simulations, and it supports propagating uncertainties systematically. While this approach can generate thousands of damage realisations, we describe the restoration time estimation approach by focusing on one potential damage realisation of the electricity network considering its interdependencies on road recovery time, which can be repeated for simulations. In this report, two infrastructure networks from Napier City are modelled, with potential service outage maps of the electricity network generated for a given restoration time of the road network. Work is underway to generate a full suite of damage realisations and quantify uncertainties in restoration times of the considered infrastructure networks. (auths)
